And the winner is…

15th October 2011

By Anthony Peacock

“Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do you?”

That’s a line we’ve got to thank Dirty Harry for (we’re talking Clint Eastwood here, not Rovanpera) but anybody feeling particularly fortunate would do well to get down to the betting shop sooner rather than later, if they want to wager on who’s going to win the WRC this year.

On paper, it’s the most thrilling showdown in years: Mikko Hirvonen and Sebastien Loeb tied on 196 points; Sebastien Ogier just three points down the road with 193. It’s sudden death and winner takes all. But – and here’s the thing – it’s not quite as close as it looks. And come the end of Rally Great Britain, Sebastien Loeb is still going to be walking away with his eighth title neatly in the bag.

He’s come back from a deficit before – when he trailed Hirvonen by a point going into the 2009 Rally GB – and this time he embarks on the final two rallies with a level playing field ahead of him. In fact, it’s not quite a level playing field – because Citroen boss Olivier Quesnel has already said that Loeb is number one, with Sebastien Ogier expected to support him if necessary.

So then there was one: Mikko Hirvonen. But let’s be brutally honest: the Finn will struggle to beat Loeb in Spain.

That’s not just received wisdom: a look at the statistics will remind you that Loeb has won in Spain for the last six years. During most of those years Dani Sordo has been right behind him. The Spaniard is in a MINI now rather than a Citroen, but he’s got closer to winning in four rallies armed with a Countryman than he did in five years at Citroen. MINI think they’re quicker than Ford on sealed surfaces and Sebastien Ogier is hardly a slouch on asphalt either.

So in the normal course of events, Hirvonen could expect to finish fourth in Spain, which would open up a reasonably secure 13-point gap for Loeb (maybe more, depending on how the Power Stage goes). At that point Loeb doesn’t even have to beat him in Britain (which is lucky, as Hirvonen is bloody quick there) and job done: title number eight.

Loeb is always very polite about his competitors and he’s the least arrogant person out there. But you get the clearest insight to what he is thinking when he says: “What the result in France means is that there is no margin. I cannot afford for anything to go wrong.” 

The implication is clear: Loeb believes wholeheartedly in his own ability to do it, but accepts that bad luck could still bite him. As far as mechanical problems go though, lightning doesn’t strike twice.

Loeb’s DS3 is going to be bulletproof until the end of the year, particularly since the mechanic responsible for fitting his oil pump in Alsace was dispatched face-down into the Seine. ‘Super Seb’ is going to be first in Spain and then cruise to a comfortable third behind Hirvonen and Ogier in Britain, wrapping up the title with relative ease. You heard it first here.